Poll Update: Uruguay's Ruling Party Maintains Lead, but Runoff Possible
The governing Broad Front continues as the frontrunner ahead of the October 26 vote, though it could face a second round against the National Party.
Ahead of Uruguay’s October 26 presidential election, the ruling Broad Front party maintains a comfortable lead ahead of the opposition National Party. A CIFRA poll published on July 16 found that 43 percent of the electorate intends to vote for the Broad Front, with former President Tabaré Vázquez in the running. Vázquez was the party favorite before the June 1 primaries, and his primary win did not change the party’s level of support, which CIFRA registered at 43 percent in May.
After the primaries, however, the opposition National Party and the Colorado Party each saw their support decline slightly. The National Party’s support stood at 32 percent in May, but dropped by 2 percentage points after Luis Lacalle Pou won the primary. The conservative Colorado Party, represented by Pedro Bordaberry, trails in third place at 16 percent, down from 18 percent in May. The smaller Independent Party gained 2 percentage points from May to July, which CIFRA attributed to the defection of supporters from the National and Colorado parties whose preferred candidates lost the primaries. In a July 16 poll, pollster Equipos Mori found similar results, with Vázquez at 42 percent and Lacalle Pou at 27 percent. It put Bordaberry at 13 percent.
Vázquez’s lead, however, does not surpass the absolute majority needed to avoid a runoff. A July 24 Instituto Factum poll predicts a close race between the former president and Lacalle Pou in a second-round vote, which would be held November 30. The survey registered Vázquez’s support at 51 percent and Lacalle Pou’s at 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
Given the potential for a runoff, the outcome of the election remains unclear. “For the first time in the last four years, it can't be said for certain that Tabaré Vázquez will be the next president,” Uruguayan political analyst and pollster Óscar Bottinelli said in response to the Factum report. “The election is open.” In a July 17 report, polling agency Equipos Mori noted that the Uruguayan electorate had grown divided. “Today, none of the coalitions has the cohesion necessary to win the presidency, so in the coming months they will have to make up for what they lack,” it said.
Editor's Note: The chart in this article previously stated presidential election, when it should have been general election as it indicated overall party support.