São Paulo 2014 Blog: Panel – A Conversation on Presidential Elections among Policy Experts

By
Luisa Leme

Panelists talked strategy and new contexts for 2014 elections in Brazil.

Speakers:

  • Eliane Cantanhêde, Columnist, Folha de S. Paulo; Commentator, GloboNews Em Pauta
  • Pablo Cesário, Executive Branch Relationship Manager, Brazilian National Confederation of Industry
  • Marcelo Moraes, Director, Brasilia Office, Estado de São Paulo
  • Merval Pereira, Columnist, O Globo
  • Ricardo Sennes, Partner, Prospectiva (Moderator)

During the first panel of the 2014 Latin American Cities Conference in São Paulo, policy experts discussed Brazil's upcoming presidential elections and the shaping of a new political scenario, which remains to be defined.

Merval Pereira, columnist from O Globo newspaper, started the discussion talking about Dilma Rousseff's political leverage in the next elections, affirming the next running will be "much more difficult" for the Worker's Party (PT). The shift in mood between PT and its main political ally—the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party—has led to tapering support for Rousseff losing support. According to the journalist, the political alliances may change by the October elections.

When the panel moderator, Ricardo Sennes, raised questions on the opportunities for the opposition given the country's growth and social inclusion during the last decade, columnist and commentator Eliane Cantenhêde talked about the historical context for elections in Brazil. She explained that the 2014 contenders cannot be classified as right or left in the wake of the country having a centrist social democrat, an union leader, and a woman in the presidency. She noted that the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) has nominated traditional Brazilian political figures instead of investing in new candidates, in contrast to what the PT has done in the last year. For Cantanhêde, the political process today in Brazil is dynamic, with pressure from the new middle class for basic rights and services becoming an important new factor for the upcoming campaigns, as "previous candidates did not have to deal with such demands."

The journalist recalled that even before the 2013 protests, Dilma Rousseff's government was already experiencing declining approval, adding that perceptions about the country's economy today are a disadvantage for the current government in the next running.

Read more about 2014 elections in Brazil and Latin America in AS/COA's Election Guide.

Brazilian National Confederation of Industry's Pablo Cesário talked about the Brazilian prostests as "a critique of the relationship between State and the population," explaining that issues such as urban mobility are important for the next race, with specific proposals necessary for candidates to be taken seriously.

The panelists analyzed a newer element for the 2014 elections in Brazil: the candidacy of Eduardo Campos with the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). O Estado de São Paulo's Marcelo Moraes talked about PSB's ticket as a game changer, as this is "the first time former government ministers are challenging PT's government." He pointed to opportunities for the new candidate to offer a more efficient management model, as Rousseff did not uphold her reputation for efficacy reputation. He said that Campos' biggest challenges involve attracting votes intended previously for his choice of vice president, Marina Silva, while expanding his profile in Brazil's Southeast.

Watch the entire panel here: