Cholera Casts Shadow on Haitian Election

Haiti’s growing cholera epidemic prompted Haitian President René Préval to suggest last week delaying the presidential election. Voters will select legislators as well, with 10 seats in the Senate and 99 in the Parliament are also up for grabs. The election was initially rescheduled from February 28 to November 28 after the January 12 earthquake. With tropical storm Tomas expected to hit Haiti sometime Friday, relief workers are scrambling to prepare the Caribbean country as it continues its struggle to rebuild. Observers say that, for the new government to have the mandate necessary to lead successful reconstruction efforts, elections will have to be free and fair, an already difficult goal further complicated by the cholera outbreak.

Several of the 19 presidential candidates have called for postponement of the election until the containment of the outbreak. Both frontrunners support a delay. Mirlande Manigat leads the current poll with 23.1 percent. She is the wife of Leslie Francois Manigat, who held the presidency briefly in 1988 until he was overthrown by the military and then lost a reelection bid to Préval in 2006. Trailing just behind with 21.3 percent in the polls is Jude Célestin, Préval’s chosen successor. “The population should not have to listen to campaign jingles while the population is dying,” said Célestin as he urged postponing the vote. However, with roughly 4.7 million Haitians registered, campaigning continues and neither the World Health Organization (WHO) nor Haiti’s Provisional Electoral Commission (CEP) has suggested delaying the election. Notably absent from the race is Fanmi Lavalas (FL), the party of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who was ousted in a 2004 coup but still enjoys widespread support among Haitians. The CEP rejected FL candidate bids in February, provoking protests.

Thus far, Haiti’s Ministry of Health has reported over 4,700 cases of cholera and 337 deaths since the WHO confirmed the epidemic on October 20. The outbreak began in the Artibonite Valley and is still on the upswing, leaving the capital of Port-Au-Prince on high alert. Despite efforts to increase clean water access and disseminate hygiene information, cases have begun to pop up in the capital, where concerns rage that tent-camp populations remain especially vulnerable.

Even if officials don’t postpone the election over health concerns, several problems still threaten its perceived legitimacy. Citizens encounter hurdles to replacing identification cards necessary to vote, many of which were lost in the quake; anti-candidate violence has sprouted in recent weeks. Meanwhile, critics question the integrity of the voting process, administered by the CEP, alleging that the agency’s links to the Préval administration undermine CEP impartiality. Regardless of when Haitians vote, the government’s ability to contain the outbreak could influence the election’s outcome; if voters see Préval’s administration as more effective than in the aftermath of the earthquake, Célestin may see urban-based support grow and help him close the gap with Manigat.

International donors worry that contested election results will further hamper Haiti’s slow reconstruction effort. An International Crisis Group report cautions that the winner will inherit “a major part of the decade of recovery from the worst disaster ever in the Western Hemisphere.” While the cholera epidemic grabs headlines, Haiti must overcome myriad challenges to get through the elections and continue recovery. As global health expert Laurie Garrett argues, “I don’t see any reason why [the cholera outbreak] should affect the elections more than any five or six hundred other things going on in Haiti at the moment.”

Learn More:

• Information about the presidential candidates and the Provisional Electoral Commission.
• Results of recent poll, conducted by the Haitian business community on October 24.
• Updates on the situation in Haiti from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs at ReliefWeb, from the Pan-American Health Organization, and the World Health Organization.
• International Crisis Group report and recommendations on the hurdles that Haiti must overcome to hold credible elections and continue reconstruction afterwards.
• Center for American Progress analysis of problems plaguing development efforts in Haiti.
• Follow the Haiti cholera discussion on twitter at #Haiti and #cholera. Follow twitter updates from PAHO and the WHO.