Hugo Chávez Convalesces in Cuba as Problems Mount at Home

It may be the first time in years that the political opposition has demanded that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez speak. Since undergoing emergency surgery for a pelvic abscess on June 10 during a state visit to Cuba, the normally omnipresent Chávez, 56, has hardly appeared on television or radio, with the exception of a phone interview with the Venezuelan state press and the release of photographs of him with the Castro brothers, diffused by Cuban state media. The social media-savvy leader who normally posts at least one upbeat, exclamation-pointed tweet to his 1.6 million followers per day has not updated his Twitter account since June 4. His brother Adán, who just returned from visiting the Venezuelan president in Havana, told state television Wednesday Chávez will return in 10 to 12 days. Despite Chávez’s prolonged absence, Vice President Elías Jaua says there’s no need to make him acting president, and Chávez continues to sign decrees from Cuba.

Problems mount while Chávez convalesces. Venezuela’s inflation stands at 23 percent and, last week, Energy Minister Alí Rodríguez announced that Venezuela would begin rationing energy in several as-yet-unnamed provinces due to recurrent blackouts. Perhaps most importantly, the Venezuelan government has yet to retake control of El Rodeo prison complex in the state of Miranda, which erupted into violence June 12 between opposing gangs, killing 19 people and wounding 20 more. In Chávez’s absence, the Venezuelan government sent some 4,000 National Guard troops to restore order, but the violence has yet to stop. In the wake of the riot, opposition legislators in the National Assembly called for an investigation into corruption, as well as weapons- and drug-trafficking in Venezuela’s prisons. Chávez supporters, who hold a majority in the unicameral legislature, said Wednesday they would launch an official investigation into what they said was slanted news coverage of the riot.

Chávez also faces political challenges, given that his illness comes as he prepares for his 2012 reelection campaign. The strident leftist remains popular, but ceded ground to the opposition in last year’s elections. His coalition no longer holds the two-thirds super-majority needed to approve organic laws. Though the 2012 presidential campaign does not officially begin until next year, Governor of Miranda state Henrique Capriles announced his candidacy early last month for the opposition’s Democratic Unity coalition (MUD, in Spanish) and has emerged as early favorite to challenge Chávez, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Chávez is still favored to win, but he faces tougher competition at the ballot box than in prior races.

Chávez’s international standing has also declined in recent years, as foreign projects remain stalled or fail to take off, ranging from a natural gas pipeline running from Venezuela to Argentina to a joint oil refinery in northeastern Brazil to a South American development bank most commonly known as the Bank of the South. The upcoming summit on Venezuela’s Margarita Island to lay the groundwork for the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC, in Spanish) could provide Chávez with an opportunity to boost his international clout—but he’ll cut it close if he arrives in 12 days. The two-day meeting is scheduled to begin July 5, which coincides with the bicentennial of Venezuela’s declaration of independence.

Learn more:

• Access the Americas Quarterly Spring 2011 interactive charticle “What is the Bolivarian Alternative to the Americas and What Does It Do?” by Joel Hirst.
• See an interview with Hugo Chávez’s brother Adán on Venezuelan state television.
• Read a report from Venezuela’s National Assembly about the PSUV’s calls for an investigation into private media coverage of the Rodeo prison riot.
• The Economist analyzes Hugo Chávez’s chances for reelection, in light of his health and political problems.