Measuring Mexico's Bicentennial Mood

Mexico celebrates its bicentennial this week amid a glut of pulse-taking media coverage reflecting on the country’s mood. As Mexicans prepare for the September 15 grito—the shout marking the climax of Independence Day festivities—the country celebrates its birthday but mourns the more than 28,000 lives claimed over the past four years by the drug war. A week before party time, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton caused a stir when she commented on Mexican President Felipe Calderón’s war against organized crime, saying Mexico is “looking more and more like Colombia looked 20 years ago” and compared the cartels’ strength to an “insurgency.” Her remarks drew criticism from the Mexican government and some observers, forcing U.S. President Barack Obama to smooth over the controversy. In an interview with La Opinión, Obama described Mexico as a “progressive democracy and, as a result, you cannot compare what is happening in Mexico with what happened in Colombia 20 years ago.”

Washington’s tussle over how to depict the drug war shines a light on the neighbors’ inextricably linked fates. The Obama administration has framed the war as a shared responsibility. That reality is demonstrated in a new report by the Wilson Center and Trans-Border Institute recommending increased U.S. congressional funding to stem trafficking of U.S. weapons to Mexico. Over the past three years, 80 percent of the 75,000 illegal firearms seized by the Mexican government were traced back to the United States. Cross-border arms smuggling appears to be on the rise, but Mexican firearm seizures more than tripled between 2007 and 2009, according to the report. Last month, the Calderón administration pitched a new law to stem the flow of illicit U.S. funds keeping the cartels afloat. In August, Obama inked a $600-million bill to boost surveillance technology along the border at a time when Washington weighs how to increase security collaboration with Mexico. "We are dealing with a situation generated, to a great extent, by the market for drugs and weapons in the United States and by the refusal of many Americans to recognize their own portion of responsibility in these tragic events," writes Mexican historian and Letras Libres editor Enrique Krauze. "The drug war will have to be resolved on both sides of the border."

Some news accounts have touched on bicentennial blues by pointing to the Pew Research Center's finding that 79 percent of Mexicans feel unsatisfied with the progress of the direction of the country. Still, the survey also found that 80 percent continue to support the Calderón government’s use of the army to fight cartels and 78 percent back U.S. training of Mexican armed forces. On Sunday, Mexico arrested top drug lord Sergio “El Grande” Villarreal Barraga,n a rival to recently captured kingpin Edgar “La Barbie” Valdez in the Beltrán Leyva cartel.

Just as the United States and Mexico the two neighbors are tied together because of trafficking, Mexico finds itself chained to the sluggish U.S. economy. Yet Mexican GDP growth clocked in at 7.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, marking the country’s biggest economic surge in 12 years. Next month, Mexico will become the first Latin American country to make it onto Citigroup’s World Government Bond Index, which analysts say has drawn $10 billion-worth of foreign investment in peso bonds. Overall, Mexico saw foreign direct investment rise by 23 percent in the first half of 2010.

Despite the focus on the drug war at the approach of Mexico’s two-hundredth birthday and centennial of the Mexican Revolution, the country’s murder rate registers well below that of many of its Latin American counterparts. An Associated Press article says Mexico “is battered and full of self-questioning, but with more openness and debate than perhaps at any other time in its history.” On Monday, Mexico marked another anniversary: the Battle of Chapultepec, a crucial loss in the war with the United States that ended in 1848 with Mexico losing half its territory. Calderón blamed Mexican divisions as a factor in the defeat. “We only prosper when we are united,” he said at a September 13 ceremony marking the event. “That is the great lesson of our history.”

Learn more:

• Mexican government’s web portal offering coverage of the bicentennial celebration.
• La Opinión interview with President Obama in which he comments on Secretary Clinton’s comparison of Mexico with Colombia 20 years ago.
• Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project’s August 2010 survey on Mexican attitudes toward the drug war.
• The Los Angeles Times La Plaza blog covers the bicentennial countdown and preparations.
• BBC Mundo asks Mexicans to share their wishes for the bicentennial grito.