Polling Ahead, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner Unveils Running Mate

With four days to go before the deadline to declare her candidacy, Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced on June 21 that she would seek reelection in the October 23 presidential elections, ending several weeks of speculation. She currently leads the pack of presidential hopefuls, with pollster OPSM estimating Fernández would win comfortably in the first round if the election were held today. But given that most observers expected her to run, there was just as much interest in who she’d select as her running mate. Fernández de Kirchner picked a vice president who she praised for his loyalty—economy minister Amado Boudou. Her choice also reflects her intention to make her administration’s economic model, which combines elements of nationalism and state support of local industry with export-driven growth, the centerpiece of her campaign. She described her selection of Boudou as a “redefinition” of the office of vice president, which normally falls to a traditional politician rather than a government minister.

As economy minister, Boudou presided over a post-2008 recovery that delivered 9.1 percent growth over the first four months of this year. The program of reindustrialization he manages has created jobs in the manufacturing sector, winning him points with Argentina’s powerful labor unions. The electric-guitar playing, motorcycle-riding 47-year-old with a winning smile appeals to Argentina’s youth, and some think Fernández’s selection of Boudou may be part of a wider strategy of cultivating new leaders and appealing to a new generation of voters. 

For the president’s critics, however, Boudou embodies some of the Fernández de Kirchner administration’s policies they find questionable. The Argentine president cites Boudou as the inspiration behind her administration’s decision to nationalize the country’s private pensions in order to boost government spending. The opposition continues to butt heads with the administration over the government’s assessment of inflation, which the country’s statistics institute estimates at around 10 percent for 2010, while private agencies put the figure above 20 percent. Financial Times Beyondbrics blogs notes, however, that Fernández de Kirchner “can tout undeniable achievements – including her government’s renegotiation of outstanding debt with bondholders after a five-year standoff.” But the administration will have to manage rising inflation, government spending, energy stability, and its investment profile, reports the post.

Fernández de Kirchner's pick for vice president took on an unusual importance partly because of her difficult relationship with current Vice President Julio Cobos. Early in her presidency during political battles with agribusiness, it was Cobos who cast the final vote that killed her measure to raise export taxes. Her approval ratings fell to 20 percent by June of 2008 and it took a year for her support to recover to above 30 percent. In recent months, however, her ratings have bounced back, due partly to Argentina’s positive economic performance and partly to an outpouring of sympathy over the death of her husband Néstor Kirchner in October 2010, jumping from 38 percent at that point to 55 percent the following month, where it has hovered ever since. Currently, Fernández de Kirchner is the clear frontrunner and with a fractured opposition, she may face little in the way of competition. Her closest rival in the polls for the October presidential election, Ricardo Alfonsín of the Unión Cívica Radical, distantly trails her with just 15 percent, followed by former President Eduardo Duhalde with 7 percent.

Learn more:

• Listen to Cristina Fernández’s speech announcing Boudou as her running mate for the 2011 presidential election.
• View polls measuring Fernández’s popularity and measuring voter intention for the October elections.
• Read a profile of Fernández de Kirchner by El Espectador correspondent Nicolás Cuéllar Ramírez.