Will Venezuela's Crisis Mean Higher Migration Levels?
Will Venezuela's Crisis Mean Higher Migration Levels?
"Venezuela's societal debacle will most likely worsen," says José Enrique Arrioja, Americas Quarterly's managing editor on Latin American Advisor.
Migrant crossings through the Darién Gap have surged since August, the Panamanian government announced on Oct. 11. More than 80 percent of the migrants passing through the Darién Gap in September were Venezuelans, and the increase came amid a crackdown in Venezuela following the country’s disputed presidential election. How has Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis changed in the wake of the election? How might migration through the Darién Gap shift over the coming months? How does the evolving migration crisis in Venezuela play into the U.S. presidential election, and how would the two candidates’ policy positions affect the United States’ role in the crisis?
José Enrique Arrioja, managing editor of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Venezuela’s societal debacle will most likely worsen. Nicolás Maduro’s fraudulent attempt to stay in power has opened a new political era in the country—with an autocratic, hegemonic state under renewed international isolation—creating a scenario that will only cause Venezuelans more suffering. Even with the nation’s GDP expected to grow 3 percent this year, the minimum salary is little more than $3 per month at the official—albeit distorted—exchange rate, and annual inflation is nearly 60 percent. The government has implemented special cash payments, including an emblematic ‘war bonus,’ that bring the average monthly wage for most public employees to $130. But these incentives barely help, as a basic food basket for a family of five is $531 monthly.
Data from Panamanian authorities show a sizable increase in irregular crossings via the Darién Gap, with 19,800 Venezuelans in transit in September compared to 11,733 in August. Another massive migration wave of Venezuelans may soon unfold, adding to what’s already Latin America’s most significant exodus in recent history. In the eyes of many Americans, Venezuela is now inconvenient. Once a steady supplier of crude oil and a political ally, it’s now perceived as a source of undocumented migrants and criminals. The presence of the infamous Tren de Aragua gang in the United States, as well as some isolated incidents of criminal violence, are fueling the anti-migration rhetoric of former President Donald Trump. Regardless of the outcome of next Tuesday’s election in the United States, U.S. policy toward Venezuela will most likely be meaningfully recalibrated, as Biden’s negotiation strategy didn’t produce the expected outcome. It’s too early to predict how a Harris or Trump administration will attempt to dislodge Maduro from power. Still, there’s little doubt about the urgency of the moment, as the regime is eying Jan. 10—Maduro’s inauguration day—as the dawn of a new era more openly and closely aligned with anti-Western nations. And with that, the hopes of restoring democracy in Venezuela in the foreseeable future may languish inexorably.”
