Guide: 2014 Elections in the Americas

A calendar circulating on Brazilian social media jokes that Brazilians will only work three months this year, thanks to the upcoming World Cup, elections, and Carnival. While this is an exaggeration, a number of important dates related to the October elections will mark 2014 in Brazil. Brazilians will elect the next president for a four-year term, as well as members of Congress, governors, and state legislators. In this country, voting is mandatory.

AS/COA Online looks at the schedule of events coming up in Brazil this year.

Schedule of Events

Carnival: March 3 and 4

World Cup: June 12 to July 13

Party conventions to choose candidates: June 10 to 30

Each political party holds conventions to pick who will run for all open seats. These conventions are held on the municipal, state, and federal levels with party members, depending on the positions up for a vote. This year, parties will select candidates for president and vice president, governors, federal deputies and senators, and state legislators.  

Cut-off date for candidates to register: July 5

After a party has picked its candidates for open seats, candidates must register with the country’s Superior Electoral Court.

Campaigns allowed to begin: July 6

Candidates are legally allowed to begin campaigning, such as public appearances and launching campaign websites.

Free campaign advertising begins: August 19

The government begins providing free air time on TV and radio to political candidates. There are 130 minutes of free political ads each day, split up into two 50-minute blocks and short ads of 1 minute or less distributed throughout the day. Airtime is given based on party representation in Congress, so candidates from large parties and coalitions get more time than those from smaller parties. Paid ads are prohibited on TV and radio, with strict restrictions for paid print and internet ads.

Electoral courts release decisions on candidate registrations: August 21

Courts can bar candidates from running if they do not have the proper paperwork or if they have been convicted of crimes or corruption, making them in violation of the Clean Record Law.

Televised presidential debates: August to October

While dates have not been set yet, televised debates between presidential candidates are typically held in August, September, and October.

Candidates must end campaigns: October 2

Free TV and radio campaign advertising ends. Candidates can no longer campaign through public appearances and meetings.

Last day for print advertising: October 3

Candidates must stop running ads in the print media and online versions of print media.

First round election: October 5, 2014

Brazilians will pick candidates for president and vice president, as well as governors, federal deputies and senators, and state deputies and senators. Runoffs are allowed for presidents, governors, and mayors. A second round takes place if a candidate fails to receive more than 50 percent of the vote.

Runoff campaigns begin: October 6  

At 5pm local time, runoff candidates are legally allowed to launch ads and campaigns.

Runoff campaigns end: October 23

Candidates participating in the runoff must cease campaigning through public appearances.

Runoff campaign advertising ends: October 24

Runoff candidates are no longer allowed to run ads.

Runoff election: October 26, 2014

To win the second round, a candidate must achieve an absolute majority.

Presidential inauguration: January 1, 2015

The new president will be sworn into office.

Congressional swearing-in: February 1, 2015

Members of Congress will be sworn into office.

A number of Latin American countries are preparing for congressional elections in 2014, and gender quotas will play a role in the number of women vying for legislative seats. In the region, 16 countries have quota systems for lawmakers, while one in four Latin American legislators are women. Globally, the Americas boasts the highest proportion of women lawmakers, just ahead of Europe.*

AS/COA Online looks at six countries holding legislative elections in 2014 that have mandated minimum thresholds for female congressional candidates. 

Bolivia: An electoral law passed in 2010—which will be implemented during the 2014 elections—stipulates that candidate lists for the upper and lower houses of the Legislative Assembly must include equal numbers of men and women. For odd-numbered lists, preference is given to women. Currently, women encompass 22 percent of the Chamber of Deputies and 47 percent of the Chamber of Senators.

Brazil: The country’s 1997 electoral law requires at least 30 percent of Chamber of Deputies candidates to be female. A September 2009 amendment to the legislation requires parties to allocate at least 10 percent of advertising and 5 percent of public campaign funding to promote women’s participation in the political sphere. However, women currently make up only 9 percent of the Chamber of Deputies and 16 percent of the Senate.

Colombia:  A gender quota law passed in July 2011 requires 30 percent of candidates for all publicly elected offices to be women. While 2014 will mark the first national legislative election with the law in place, the quota helped boost the number of female candidates from 20 percent to 35 percent during the 2011 local elections. The legislation also reserves 5 percent of state funding for political parties based on the number of women a party has elected to public office.  Overall, women make up 16 percent of Congress, with 13 percent of the lower house and 17 percent of the upper house represented by female lawmakers.

Costa Rica: A 2009 electoral law stipulates that 50 percent of all candidates for public office must be women. It also requires political parties to promote gender equality in the party structure, such as mandating that they list their candidates by alternating men’s and women’s names. Costa Rica has one of the highest percentages of women lawmakers in the Americas: 39 percent of the unicameral legislature is female.

Panama: A September 2012 amendment to the country’s electoral code states that women must encompass at least 50 percent of candidacies for primaries and internal party elections. However, if less than 50 percent of female candidates run for office, the legislation permits men to fill the vacant slots. Also, there is no mandate requiring a threshold of female candidates in national or local elections. Women make up only 9 percent of the unicameral legislature.

Uruguay: Legislation passed in 2009 established a gender quota in effect only for the 2014 national elections and 2015 local elections. On all candidate lists for public office, men and women must be represented in every three places—either throughout the whole list or in the first 15 spots. When only two seats are up for grabs, one of the two candidates must be a woman. Women currently make up 14 percent of the lower house and 13 percent of the upper house of Congress.

*Editor's note: The original version of this blog post stated that the Americas has the second-highest proportion of women lawmakers after Europe. The Americas has a higher proportion of legislators than Europe and is only second to Nordic countries when those countries are take separately from Europe.

With eight weeks to go before El Salvador’s presidential election, a December 11 poll by the University of Central America placed the governing party candidate ahead of the pack. Vice President and former guerilla commander Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) leads with 38.4 percent against 33.4 percent for Norman Quijano of the main opposition party—the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA). Ex-president Antonio Saca, formerly of ARENA but now leading the Unity coalition of conservative parties, polls third with 16.6 percent. Another survey released the same day by CS-Sondea gives Sánchez Cerén 39.2 percent, Quijano 34.2 percent, and Saca 15.8 percent. The election takes place on February 2.

No candidate appears to hold a commanding poll lead at this point to garner more than 50 percent to win, so the two top candidates will likely square off in a subsequent runoff. In November, Saca said: “It’s an error to live or die by polls.” But Tim’s El Savador Blog shows him facing an uphill climb; the last four polls place Sánchez Cerén averaging at 34.1 percent, Quijano at 31.9 percent, and Saca at 16.1 percent.

The blog takes a closer look at the University of Central America (UCA) poll, noting that current President Mauricio Funes may be helping to lift Sánchez Cerén, given that voters gave Funes an average of 6.6 on a 10-point scale and 64 percent of respondents viewed the FMLN administration as having benefited El Salvador. On the other hand, the piece also points out that former FMLN commanders have not fared well in elections.

But what would happen in a runoff? Central American Politics points out that the UCA poll shows ARENA comes out just ahead of the FMLN in polling for a runoff, with 45.4 percent compared to 44.8 percent. “However, the difference is within the margin of error so let's not get too worked up about it just yet,” writes University of Scranton Professor Mike Allison. “[I]t's still anybody's ballgame.”

The first presidential debate takes place on January 12.

Colombia holds presidential elections on May 25, 2014 as President Juan Manuel Santos of the Social Party of National Unity—better known as Party of the U—seeks reelection. Santos’ main contender is Oscar Iván Zuluaga of the right-leaning Democratic Center, a party created in 2012 by former President Álvaro Uribe. Clara López of the left-leaning Democratic Pole party is also running for president. According to a December Gallup poll, Santos is in the lead with 38.5 percent, followed by Zuluaga with 13.6 percent, and López with 5 percent. The survey also found that Santos would win a runoff with 47.5 percent (against Zuluaga with 23.9 percent and 25.7 percent blank votes).

One of the main goals behind Santos’ reelection bid is to continue Colombia’s peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group. Santos previously served as trade minister, finance minister, and defense minister before becoming president in 2010. Though he co-founded the Party of the U based on Uribe’s polices, and worked in Uribe’s administration as defense minister, after taking office, Santos had a falling out with the former president over security policies. In addition to the peace talks, Santos plans to continue social inclusion initiatives such as cash-transfer programs and building homes for the poor.

Meanwhile, Zuluaga—backed by Uribe—is opposed to the peace dialogue, and said he would suspend the talks and impose conditions on the FARC in order to continue negotiations, such as demanding an end to criminal activity and prohibiting political participation by guerrillas. A former senator and finance minister, Zuluaga also supports cutting government spending and reducing the number of congressional seats by 20 percent. Nevertheless, he promises social inclusion measures similar to those Santos has championed.

In less than two months, Costa Ricans will cast their ballots for the next president. Though nearly half the electorate is undecided about which candidate to vote for, 71 percent plan to head to the polls, shows a December 10 survey by the Center for Research and Policy Studies at the University of Costa Rica. The poll found that longtime front-runner Johnny Araya of the ruling National Liberation Party is losing ground, with around 17.4 percent. Araya—who served as mayor of San José from 1998 to 2001 and from 2003 to 2013—is neck-and-neck with Congressman José María Villalta of the left-leaning Broad Front, who comes in at 15.7 percent. Another legislator, Congressman Otto Guevara of the Libertarian Movement, is in third place with 10.4 percent. Citizen Action Party candidate Luis Guillermo Solís has 5.1 percent of voter support, followed by the Social Christian Unity Party’s Rodolfo Piza with 3.1 percent. The election takes place on February 2, 2014.

According to a Unimer poll released earlier this month, voter support for Araya—who is backed by President Laura Chinchilla—fell from 38 percent to 19 percent between September and November, while support for Villalta and Guevara rose during the same period. Chinchilla has low approval ratings, which affected Araya’s campaign support, notes La Nación.

Meanwhile, Villalta now leads the pack in the Unimer survey, with voter support ranging between 17 and 22 percent. Another factor helped him in recent months: Social Christian Unity Party candidate Rodolfo Hernández abruptly withdrew from the race in October, claiming corruption among party leaders. In September, Unimer showed Hernández polling second. Two months later, both Araya and Guevara were tied in second with between 14 and 19 percent of the vote.

Other important factors to consider are abstention rates and undecided voters. Dissatisfaction with Chinchilla’s performance is contributing to voters’ decision not to go to the polls: those critical of the president are more unlikely to vote than those with a favorable view of her administration, shows Unimer. The poll also demonstrated an increase in undecided voters: between 19 and 24 percent do not know which candidate to pick. If no candidate garners more than 40 percent of votes during the first round of votes in February, a runoff will be held in April.