Daniel Noboa Wins Reelection in Ecuador

On April 13, Daniel Noboa won reelection in Ecuador, earning him his first complete presidential term. The 37-year-old incumbent defeated Luisa González, a former assemblywoman, in a rematch of the 2023 presidential contest. Back then, Noboa’s victory netted him the remaining 16 months of the term of President Guillermo Lasso (2021–2023), after Lasso resigned from office and triggered snap elections. Now, Noboa will serve a full four-year term after winning 55.7 percent of valid votes, an advantage of more than 11 percentage points over González, according to the vote count published by the National Electoral Council. Turnout for the April 13 runoff was 83.7 percent, of an electorate numbering approximately 13.8 million, in line with elections of the past decade. Noboa’s second term begins on May 24.

Noboa and González had each earned around 44 percent of the vote share in February’s first round and pre-runoff polling predicted similarly close margins for the second round. In a speech to his supporters after the runoff results were declared, Noboa hailed his victory as “historic” and said there could be “no doubt about who the winner is.” However, González and her Citizen Revolution (RC) party have not recognized the results as of April 14, alleging fraud and calling for a recount. Among their stated concerns was the president’s decree of a state of emergency over the weekend in provinces viewed as more favorable to González. The president cited increased violence from organized crime groups as the reason behind the action. International election observers have not signaled any suspicion of fraud.

Noboa’s winning campaign promises centered on addressing an insecurity crisis fueled by drug-related violence and issues of underemployment, particularly among younger adults.

Ecuador’s newly expanded 151-seat National Assembly begins its term on May 14 with no party holding a majority. González’s RC won the most seats, 67, in February’s election while Noboa’s National Democratic Action (ADN) earned 66. Prior to the runoff vote, González had negotiated a “programmatic agreement” with Pachakutik, an indigenous party that will occupy nine seats in the legislature. It is unclear whether the agreement will hold following González’s defeat. The remaining nine seats are divided among smaller parties and movements.