Ecuador's 2025 Presidential Runoff: Comparing Daniel Noboa and Luisa González

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Daniel Noboa

Born in Miami, Florida, and raised in Guayaquil, Daniel Noboa, 37, is the son of Ecuador’s richest man, Álvaro Noboa—a five-time presidential candidate and head of a multinational banana and shipping conglomerate—and Dr. Annabella Azín, who returns to the legislature for the 2025–2029 term as its most-voted member. Daniel Noboa has degrees from Northwestern, Harvard, and George Washington University. Before his entry into politics, he worked in his father’s business.

Noboa's political journey began in 2021, when he was elected to the National Assembly to represent the coastal province of Santa Elena. When ex-President Guillermo Lasso (2021–2023), triggered snap elections in 2023 by invoking a constitutional tool known as muerte cruzada ("crossed death") to dissolve the National Assembly—thereby avoiding impending impeachment proceedings—Noboa formed the ADN party to support his presidential run. Having registered below 5 percent in most voter intention polls prior to the first round, he surprised observers by achieving 23.5 percent of the vote to move on to the second round. His victory in the runoff at 35 years old made him the youngest president in Ecuador's history—and one of the youngest heads of state in the world. 

Noboa is currently completing the 16 months that remained of Lasso’s term. The incumbent brands himself as the leader of “the new Ecuador” and has asked voters to grant him a full term for his policy agenda to bear results. In his truncated mandate, he has tried to address a spiralling crime situation and significant shortcomings in the country’s hydropowered electricity supply. He has maintained an approval rating above 50 percent for most of his presidency. 

He is joined on the 2025 ticket by María José Pinto, who previously helmed a government office tackling child nutrition. Noboa’s current vice president, Verónica Abad, has been barred from participating in electoral politics for two years, following a series of public disputes with the president and others in his administration. 

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Luisa González

Luisa González, 47, grew up in an agricultural town in western Ecuador. She is a lawyer with advanced degrees in management and economics. She is also a former assemblywoman for her home province of Manabí (2021–2023) and held various roles in the government of former-President Rafael Correa including general secretary of the presidency (2015–2016) and of public administration (2017). Correa remains self-exiled in Belgium to avoid imprisonment on corruption charges, which he maintains were politically motivated.

González is viewed as the protegée of Correa and is the candidate of his Citizen Revolution party. She is running on a platform to “revive Ecuador.” In the first round, she had strong support in the coastal provinces, the region most affected by drug violence. If elected, she is expected to return to Correa’s blend of significant social spending and social conservatism. She has spoken out against abortion rights, including in cases of rape. 

This is González's second run for president. Should she win April’s runoff, she would be Ecuador’s first elected female president. Her running mate is Diego Borja, a former economy minister (2005–2006, 2008–2010) and president of the Central Bank (2010–2011). 

Ecuador has seen an uptick in its homicide rate over the last five years as local criminal groups play an increasingly active role in the hemisphere's illicit drug trade. In 2024, the country had South America’s highest murder rate: 38.8 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. This was down from 46.2 in 2023; in 2018, it was 5.8. In a recent Latin America in Focus episode, security expert Vanda Felbab-Brown noted, “The country is for the first time really confronting a perfect storm of very much empowered internal and external criminal actors, a really weakened state, and societal resilience to organized crime being very weakened by COVID.” 

In January 2024, President Noboa declared an "internal armed conflict" against organized crime. The order amplified the military presence in prisons and on streets around the country as part of the president’s “Plan Phoenix,” an anti-crime program the full details of which have not been made public. Under Noboa’s security agenda, the military participates in joint law enforcement operations with the police and specialized anti-terrorist units as part of a “Security Block.” In June 2024, his administration began construction of a maximum security prison, one of two Noboa promised in 2023 campaign, which he said would be similar to El Salvador’s mega-prison. Much of Noboa’s security policy was endorsed by the electorate in an April 2024 referendum.

Despite President Noboa’s hardline policies against violence and organized crime, January 2025 was the most violent month in Ecuador’s recorded history with 781 people killed. In a poll that month, insecurity ranked as citizens’ top concern. Around 35 percent of respondents said that crime was the country's biggest problem.

On March 11, Noboa announced on X that his government had established “a strategic alliance” with Erik Prince, founder of private military firm Blackwater, “to strengthen [Ecuador’s] capacity in the fight against narcoterrorism” and to protect against illegal fishing. During a March 23 debate, González argued that inviting foreign “mercenaries” to combat crime suggested a lack of faith in the country’s security forces. She instead proposed working with neighboring countries, the United States, and the European Union to better train security personnel. 

González has similarly proposed increasing the military’s role in combating organized crime, while calling for a “zero tolerance” approach against “excessive use of force, repression of legitimate protest, and state terrorism.” Her manifesto also emphasizes a holistic approach to reducing crime that would involve social programs to tackle issues such as unemployment, addiction, and poverty. It also proposes reinstating a coordinating security ministry and a ministry of justice and human rights. The administration of Lenín Moreno (2017–2021) closed the coordinating security ministry in 2017 and downgraded the justice ministry to a secretariat in 2019.

Ecuador’s economy has experienced a slowdown over the last decade, averaging 1.6 percent annual real GDP growth according to 2024 IMF calculations, compared to about 3.7 percent the decade prior. Its debt burden has also increased over a similar period, from 22.5 percent of the GDP in 2015 to approximately 42.5 percent in 2024.

In May 2024, the IMF approved a $4 billion loan negotiated by the Noboa administration to assist with fiscal sustainability and safeguarding the social safety net. This followed an $800 million short-term loan granted by CAF in April to support the IMF package. As part of the IMF deal, Noboa reduced subsidies on gasoline in June, an unpopular policy that previous governments avoided. This followed an April increase in value added tax to 15 percent from 12 percent, which, like the subsidy reduction, dented the president’s approval rating. 

Noboa’s platform includes promises to diversify the economy—through sectors such as tourism, creative industries, and the knowledge economy—while also improving the country’s logistic and transportation infrastructure, as well as cracking down on tax evasion and other forms of financial malpractice. 

González’s agenda centers on more state involvement in the economy to promote the redistribution of wealth through increased social spending, in the vein of her mentor, Correa. Her platform pledges to facilitate the incorporation of cooperatives and other community organizations into the formal economy and to work towards a universal basic income. She also aims to boost production in non-oil sectors such as manufacturing and agroindustry. 

González has spoken out against the IMF deal and would seek to renegotiate the terms of the deal to reduce the sum owed. On the March debate stage, she stated that she would lower the value added tax, reversing Noboa’s action. 

Despite mutual accusations to the contrary during the runoff debate, both candidates have expressed support for maintaining the U.S. dollar as Ecuador’s legal currency, as it has been since the year 2000.

Year-end unemployment for 2024 was 3.7 percent, but a lack of secure jobs continues to concern voters, especially young people. Over 71 percent of those unemployed are under 35 years old. The year ended with a record high rate of informality—58 percent of workers—and a record low rate of “adequate employment” of 33 percent. “Adequate employment” refers to jobs that guarantee full-time work with at least the minimum wage. 

Noboa’s agenda to address these concerns centers on creating job opportunities for women and young people. He has proposed strengthening existing incentives, such as the “Let’s Work Together—First Job Training” program for 18 to 29-year-olds, and introducing new ones for businesses who employ these groups. 

Similarly, González plans to promote youth employment through tax exemptions for businesses that create formal positions for young people nd to provide low-interest lines of credit for women and young entrepreneurs. Her manifesto outlines ideas to link social assistance programs to entry into the formal labor market and advocates for tripartite negotiations among unions, employers, and the state to improve working conditions more generally.

Regular and prolonged blackouts in late 2024 called into question the sustainability of Ecuador's power matrix, 70 percent of which is hydropowered. When an intense drought hit the region and dried up the country's rivers, the government implemented daily cuts of up to 14 hours to manage electricity supply. Although Noboa’s administration suspended the cuts in late December, an association of engineers warned that they could be necessary again as soon as April.

President Noboa has promised that there would be no blackouts through 2026, citing his administration’s efforts to boost the electricity supply, including the use of floating generators. His manifesto includes plans to introduce non-traditional renewable energy sources through both public and private investment as well as public-private partnerships, and to encourage the private sector to generate their own energy. He has also pledged not to raise electricity rates. 

González has likewise sketched out a complementary role for the private sector in improving the electricity supply, stating a desire to attract investment in renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Her policy program also proposes nationalizing the management of the country’s hydroelectric power stations. At the same time, she views the continued production of fossil fuels as key to securing Ecuador’s energy sovereignty.

Noboa was one of the few international leaders to make it inside the rotunda for the January 20 inauguration ceremony of U.S. President Donald Trump. On March 29, just two weeks out from the runoff vote, Noboa paid a visit to Trump in Florida for a meeting the Ecuadoran president’s press office characterized as “friendly and private.” 

On February 3, a couple of days after the Trump administration first announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Noboa declared that Ecuador would also impose a 27 percent tariff on Mexican goods, suggesting that the trade relationship was “an abuse.” 

This is not the first fight Noboa has picked with Mexico. In April 2024, on the command of the president, Ecuadoran police stormed the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former vice president who served with Correa and had taken refuge in the embassy to avoid imprisonment on corruption charges. This sparked an outcry in the diplomatic community and prompted then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico to suspend relations with Ecuador.

The current Mexican head of state, Claudia Sheinbaum, has openly supported Luisa González. In one of Sheinbaum’s daily press conferences, she expressed “hope that Ecuador could soon shout ‘presidenta’ with ‘a’.” Both have stated a desire to repair bilateral relations.

Like her mentor, Rafael Correa, González will seek alliances with the region’s leftist leaders. During a recent visit to Uruguay to attend the inauguration of center-left President Yamandú Orsi, she met with Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Xiomara Castro of Honduras, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, and Gabriel Boric of Chile.

In response to a question from Noboa during the March debate, González said she plans to recognize Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela in order to facilitate deportations of Venezuelan immigrants. "I will do the same as the United States and return Venezuelans who don’t have a steady income, who take jobs, and who sow violence in my country,” she said. Noboa stated that he would "never recognize a totalitarian dictatorial government” and that his administration had treated immigrants with “humanity.” Ecuador hosts approximately 445,000 Venezuelan migrants, according to UN estimates.