LatAm in Focus: The Durability of Mano Dura in Ecuador

Ecuador was once known as one of the safest countries in Latin America—an island of peace amid neighbors beset by narcotrafficking-related violence. But in recent years, that image has been shattered.

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 “The country is for the first time really confronting a perfect storm of very much empowered internal and external criminal actors, a really weakened state, and societal resilience to organized crime being very weakened by COVID,” explained Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings Institution and the director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors.

The person tasked with confronting that perfect storm is Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa. After winning a 2023 special election prompted by a looming impeachment vote against the previous president, Noboa, the world’s youngest elected leader, began to implement hardline, punitive policies well-known for fighting crime and fetching votes in Latin America. “President Noboa is clearly modeling himself on President Bukele in El Salvador, so, you know, very much embracing what's called mano dura policies,” explained Felbab-Brown. She detailed how Noboa has involved the military in policing, increased criminal penalties, and tightened control over prisons.

Now, Noboa faces a reelection fight. He won the most votes the first round of the president elections on February 9 by a slim margin against correísta Luisa Gonzalez. The two will face off in an April 13 runoff where Noboa will try to convince voters that his approach has been successful, despite a record homicide rate in January and scandals around the military.