Guide: 2014 Elections in the Americas

As the candidates approach the May 4 finish line in Panama’s presidential race, the winner remains unclear. There are seven competitors, but three lead the pack: José Domingo Arias of the ruling party Democratic Change (CD), former Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), and Vice President Juan Carlos Varela of the Panameñista Party (PP). Earlier polls gave Arias a wider lead, but some of the final surveys show that lead shrinking, as shown by poll numbers below by firms Ipsos/Panamá Opina, Dichter & Neira, and Quantix. (The three polls estimate a margin of error of roughly +/-2 percent.). 

So what’s behind the tightening race?

Panama only holds one round of voting, meaning the candidate declared the victor on May 4 will take office for a five-year term on July 1. Presidents serve one term, and must wait out two subsequent terms before seeking reelection.

Therein lies one of the controversies of this election: Arias’ running mate is Marta Linares, wife of current President Ricardo Martinelli, raising concerns he will keep playing a role in Panamanian politics and prompting opponents to appeal to the Supreme Court regarding the constitutionality of the first lady’s candidacy. The country’s electoral tribunal determined that there were no obstacles to her being on the Arias ticket.

In fact, some see the election as a referendum on Martinelli’s presidency, which was marked by high economic growth, large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Panama Canal Expansion, and a real estate boom. However, as the supermarket magnate’s term draws to a close, growth is slowing, concerns over public spending are on the rise, and the president faces mounting corruption allegations. And in the final days before the election, Panama Canal construction workers opted to strike in demand of a wage increase. Meanwhile, Arias, who served as housing minister in the current administration, finds himself making the case that he will not be under Martinelli’s influence should he win.

But the opposition candidates aren’t free of Achilles heels either. Both the PRD's Navarro and PP's Varela have found themselves facing corruption rumors. The Dichter & Neira poll pointed out that it’s likely that Sunday’s winning candidate will fail to clear 40 percent of the vote, meaning a weak mandate—particularly when compared to Martinelli’s landslide win in 2009. Ex-President Martin Torrijos commented on the electoral race this week by saying “it will be remembered as a campaign of regression.” Not only that, but recent days have shown troubling signs for electoral transparency, with the website of news outlet TVN experiencing cyber attacks that drew the condemnation of the Inter American Press Association.

However, international observers are preparing to monitor the elections, with experts and observers from the Organization of American States, the Carter Center, and Inter-American Union of Electoral Organizations. Roughly 2.4 million Panamanians are eligible to vote and turnout hit 74 percent in the last elections. Voters will also elect 71 representatives in Panama’s unicameral legislative assembly.

Panamanians tuned in April 7 to watch five presidential hopefuls going tit-for-tat in their country’s official debate before voters cast their ballots on May 4. The three top contenders participated: José Domingo Arias of the ruling party Democratic Change, former Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro of the Democratic Revolutionary Party, and Vice President Juan Carlos Varela of the Panameñista Party. Left-leaning candidate for the Broad Front for Democracy Genaro López and independent Juan Jované also joined (although there are other independent candidates, the debate organizers select the independent candidate who ranked highest in polls). Some might make the case that the debate had a sixth participant; President Ricardo Martinelli commented on the event via Twitter.

Held by the Electoral Tribune and the Chamber of Commerce, the 150-minute debate was made up of five sections, covering social development, food security and cost of staple items, governance, an open section on varying issues, and closing statements. Participants came together on the need for improvement in the first two areas, but the third section on governance saw sparks fly, with candidates raising concerns about corruption. Navarro told Arias he was not Ricardo Martinelli and did not have “the capacity to lead the country.” The ruling-party candidate argued the current government made advances “that no other government had made in so little time.” Panamanian daily La Prensa reported on the debate’s tone and topics, such as Arias dodging uncomfortable questions, Navarro’s mano dura security proposal, Varela’s plan to drop the price on 22 staple items, López’s defense of unions, and Jované’s questioning of the millions spent on campaign advertising.

Some observers credited López and Jované for their participation in the debate, but both poll well behind the other three candidates. If social media determined the event's winner, Varela took it; he earned 51 percent of positive mentions (#VarelaSi) compared to 42.6 percent for Navarro and just 6 percent for Arias, reported Telemetro. But Navarro received the most mentions and interactions of the three, perhaps due to the fact that he outnumbers his rivals in terms of followers on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Still, it’s Panama’s 2.4 million voters, not internet users, who will determine the victor in May. Polls differ on the standing of the three candidates, and the race’s outcome remains uncertain. A March 31 Ipsos/Telemetro poll puts Arias and Navarro neck and neck at 35 percent, with Varela at 28 percent. The same poll finds that between 10 and 12 percent of any of the candidates’ supporters say they could still change their minds. A Dichter & Neira survey from earlier this month places Arias as the frontrunner with 38 percent against Navarro with 30 percent and Varela at 29 percent.

Two polls released this week indicate that President Juan Manuel Santos continues to lead the race for the presidency, though one survey shows his advantage ebbing. Meanwhile, the same poll found that the largest number of voters plan to cast a blank vote rather than any one candidate. Colombians will head to the polls on May 25.

A Cifras y Conceptos poll for Caracol Radio released March 31 shows that while President Juan Manuel Santos remains the top candidate with 23 percent, his lead declined by 8 points since late February. The Green Alliance’s Enrique Peñalosa came in second with 13 percent—a four-point increase over the previous month. The Democratic Center’s Oscar Iván Zuluaga was in third with 11 percent, showing a three-point bump since February. Meanwhile, 26 percent of voters said they planned to cast a “blank vote,” and 13 percent remain undecided. In the case of a runoff, Santos would win against both Peñalosa and Zuluaga, though around 40 percent of voters said they would submit a blank vote in either scenario. Asked why they would submit a blank vote, 56 percent said it was a way to express discontent, and 21 percent said they didn’t like any of the candidates.

Published on March 31, a National Consulting Center survey for news radio station CM& found that 26 percent of those polled plan to vote for Santos. Peñalosa had 18 percent, with Zuluaga at 14 percent. In the case of a runoff, the survey shows that Peñalosa would win with 41 percent over 36 percent for Santos. But against Zuluaga, Santos would win with a nine-point margin.

Colombia news site La Silla Vacía points out that Santos’ March 19 move to remove Bogota Mayor Gustavo Petro from his post—after the local leader faced a battle to keep his seat—may have hurt the president’s poll numbers. The article notes that in the Cifras y Conceptos survey, 60 percent of those polled disagreed with Santos’ decision, and 46 percent disapproved of Santos’ pick for interim mayor. Meanwhile, the survey showed that Peñalosa—who opposed Petro’s ouster—has a higher approval rating than Santos, at 40 percent compared to the president’s 35 percent. La Silla Vacía also observed that in the regional breakdown, 69 percent of Bogota residents say they will not vote for Santos.