Guide: 2014 Elections in the Americas

On April 6, Costa Ricans vote in a runoff to pick a president, even though only one candidate has been left standing.

During the first-round vote on February 2, Luis Guillermo Solís of the Citizens’ Action Party (PAC) came in first with 30.98 percent, despite the fact that he’d been polling fourth. The governing National Liberation Party (PLN)’s Johnny Araya came in second with 29.57 percent. Abstention outpaced the portion of the vote that each candidate earned, reaching nearly 32 percent. Because no candidate reached the required 40 percent, a runoff vote was set.

But on March 5, Araya announced that he would stop campaigning in the face of disappointing poll numbers. It was the first time in Costa Rican history that a candidate has dropped out of a presidential runoff. Legally, Araya cannot withdraw altogether from the race, and his name will appear on the ballot on Sunday. Solís must receive a simple majority of votes in order to win the second round.

Campaigning officially ended on March 30, as Solís called for 1 million votes to ensure he has a mandate at the end of the one-horse race. The PAC candidate is a former professor who has never held elected office, and ran on a platform of transparency and anti-corruption. Last week, PLN party leaders challenged PAC to a debate, but the PAC rejected the idea, saying there would be a time crunch due to the fact that April 2 marks the last day for debates.

Even though he stopped campaigning, Araya encouraged Costa Ricans to turn out to the polls.

Panama’s national election takes place May 4, and the governing-party candidate leads polls in the race for the presidency. Still, some surveys show the frontrunner in a tight race or his top rival making gains.

One poll published this week by pollsters Dichter & Neir has José Domingo Arias of the ruling Democratic Change (CD) party with 39 percent of voter intention. That gives the former housing minister a seven-point lead over his top rival, Juan Carlos Navarro, ex-mayor of Panama City and candidate for the Democratic Revolutionary Party. But an Ipsos poll also released this week shows just a two-point difference, with Arias at 33 percent and Navarro at 31 percent. Both polls put Vice President and Panameñista Party candidate Juan Carlos Varela trailing in third at 26 percent.

Also a candidate in the last election, Varela joined current President Ricardo Martinelli’s ticket at the time and became the foreign relations minister, but the two had a falling out in 2011, when the president sacked Varela from his ministerial role during a dispute over electoral reform. This time around, the CD candidate didn’t split the ticket with another party; Arias’ partner in the race is First Lady Marta de Martinelli. The Dichter & Neir poll found that 56 percent of respondents consider her candidacy as vice president a form of reelection “in disguise” (presidents must sit out two terms before seeking to hold the top office again.). The same poll gives the president an approval rating of 63 percent, but Ipsos has the number at just 44 percent.

There is no runoff vote for Panama’s presidency, so whoever wins a relative majority of ballots will take over for a five-year term on July 1. But even though Arias holds the lead, this election’s not over yet, as the Ipsos poll shows. Moreover, La Prensa’s “Ruta 2014” maps out how Quantix Panama polls have Navarro gaining each month, with Arias’ lead narrowing from over 10 points in December to 5.6 points in March.

This month’s Quantix survey forecasts that 2 percent of ballots will be en blanco (left blank or destroyed) and showed that 2.4 percent of people polled either did not respond or remain undecided. Ipsos finds that 89 percent of its poll respondents plan to vote come May 4.

On March 20, Ibope released a new poll ahead of Brazil’s October 5 presidential election. Though presidential candidacies will be officially announced in June, those named in the polls are referred to as “pre-candidates.” The survey found that President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party has 43 percent of the vote, with the Brazilian Social Democratic Party Senator Aécio Neves in second place with 15 percent. The Brazilian Socialist Party’s Eduardo Campos, governor of Pernambuco state, took the third spot with 7 percent.

Ibope also looked at a scenario that involved minority candidates, in which Rousseff would receive 40 percent, and other candidates would receive a combined total of 23 percent of the vote. In this case, Rousseff would be able to win in the first round with an absolute majority, because the percentage of votes for her would outnumber the combined percentage of votes for other candidates. If the vote went to a second round, Rousseff would win with a wide margin against Neves, Campos, or Marina Silva—Campos’ vice presidential pick. According to Ibope’s past polls, Rousseff has maintained a lead of between 8 and 46 points over the second-place candidate since March 2013.

In spite of the wide support for the president, the poll found that 64 percent of voters hope the next president “totally changes things” or “changes things a lot” during the next administration. Meanwhile 32 percent want to see things stay the same.

Ahead of Colombia’s presidential election on May 25, a new poll shows that while President Juan Manuel Santos is in the lead, he could face a close runoff.

Released March 16, the Datexco survey for El Tiempo and W Radio indicates that Santos is in first place with 25.5 percent of the vote, followed by the Green Alliance’s Enrique Peñalosa with 17.1 percent. Peñalosa, a former Bogota mayor, was chosen in a party primary on March 9 to run for president. The Democratic Center’s Oscar Iván Zuluaga—running on a ticket created by former President Álvaro Uribe— came in third with 14.6 percent. Clara López of the Democratic Pole/Patriotic Union alliance was in fourth place at 10.7 percent. Finally, the Conservative Party’s Marta Lucía Ramírez had 7.7 percent.

Because a candidate needs at least 50 percent of the votes to avoid a runoff, Datexco asked who voters would choose in the event of a second round. Santos would have an ample lead of at least 10 points over all of the candidates except for Peñalosa. In the case of a runoff between the president and the Green Alliance candidate, the survey shows that about 40 percent of voters would pick Peñalosa and 37 percent would choose Santos.

The poll showed a notable change from a previous survey in February: fewer voters said they planned to cast a blank vote. In February, nearly 42 percent said they would submit a blank vote, while in March, that number dropped to less than 17 percent.

After a runoff vote that separated both candidates by less than 6,400 votes, El Salvador’s electoral authorities declared a winner a week after the election. On March 16, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) said that after a recount, the governing Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN)’s Salvador Sánchez Cerén defeated Norman Quijano of the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA). 

Declárese electo como Presidente de la República al señor Salvador Sánchez Cerén

— TSE El Salvador (@tse_elsalvador) March 17, 2014

The TSE also denied a petition by ARENA to annul the election results, after the party alleged voter fraud during the March 9 runoff. ARENA also appealed to the country’s constitutional court, which has yet to release a decision.

The recount results, which concluded on March 13, showed the same divide between the two candidates as the initial results: 50.11 percent for Sánchez Cerén and 49.89 percent for Quijano. This TSE chart shows the final vote breakdown.

The FMLN celebrated the recount results on March 15, and Sánchez Cerén thanked his supporters on Twitter after the TSE announcement on March 16.

¡Gracias pueblo salvadoreño! La victoria es nuestra #5Más #Adelante pic.twitter.com/uXOdeDNqIC

— Salvador Sánchez C. (@sanchezceren) March 17, 2014

Yesterday, Quijano maintained allegations of fraud, sharing a video on Twitter alleging manipulation during the final vote count.

En el escrutinio final, hemos visto como se han manipulado documentos de manera ilegal. Contemos voto por voto. http://t.co/bIUec64kZA

— Norman Quijano (@norman_quijano) March 16, 2014

Sánchez Cerén takes office on June 1 to serve a five-year term.